Showing posts with label bitcoin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bitcoin. Show all posts

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Quick backtest update [ STRATEGY-TREND-1: XBTUSD @ 2018-11-01 -> 2019-01-17 ]

STRATEGY-TREND-1: XBTUSD @ 2018-11-01 -> 2019-01-17 { git: a623d60742e96d35b8f7365496ffd99911aa7dbb }

NOTE: I'll post future backtests on this page ==> https://quantoga.blogspot.com/p/backtests.html

  • 10000 USD fixed position size (perpetual futures contracts).
  • Fees are included.
  • Limit orders are used for both entries and exits.
Huge improvements are still possible; i.e. even by adding basic kelly% for position sizing+++.

NOTE: the candle coloring isn't a very good representation of what's going on. The color is only based on avg position at a single point in time (the open). The candle at 2019-01-10 (2nd image) is shown as a long (green), but that's only for the first part of the candle before it goes short. It then goes long again before the next candle -- which is therefore green "again". In the end the initial loss for that duration is cancelled out by the gain from the brief short taken in the middle of the drop.


Don't pay too much attention to the colors in this; they are not correct or accurate.


...this is based on recent improvements to the strategy I did a screencapture of here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnCQ3qOKou4 ..actually, the biggest change is probably a move from trading based on discrete time to continuous time and the addition of a signal system with dedicated grace durations etc. etc..  

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

2018: Working on new market making strategy; trading the Bitcoin bottom



....very much work in progress scratched down using pinescript. Basically mean reversion with pyramiding. Because of fees and execution latency this strategy will most likely only work well in the real world with limit orders for entries and exits – i.e. the strategy must plan ahead instead of reacting using market orders and/or stop-entries.

It seems to work well on traditional markets too.; natural gas:


....or things like forex; here AUDUSD:


...or more unusual pairs like AUDNZD:


..and stocks, like FB:


Thursday, May 11, 2017

$BTCUSD $BITCOIN: May 2017

Bitcoin (D) has had an amazing run within this channel since finding its bottom during 2015 sideways – and given what happened way back in 2013 it can actually break up from this channel and go parabolic once again. I would not open a new long term long and walk away from it here though.

On the 4H I set some targets while it was idling around 1525 (Bitstamp) and we've pretty much hit the upper target now.

If you're in a long term long I'd take off half or 1/3 right now or pretty soon and see. Taking any new longer term position (long or short) right now seems like a gamble.